following Monday’s insight from the analyst community on the trends and expectations for the year ahead (check out the full post here), we thought we’d have a bash ourselves at predicting the future. so here are our suggestions for the year ahead – let us know whether you agree with us, or think we’re miles off the mark…
(also – to anyone reading this in December, you have *not* got an eye condition; those floating white dots across the screen are snow. it’s festive.)
…and we’re putting together a mobile special in case you think it’s a bit thin on mobility right now – watch this space in Jan for the 2011 mobile outlook according to Edelman Tech…
Predictions for 2011:
Larry picks a fight…with God
Larry Ellison will never be accused of being the shy retiring type.
In fact one of the well known legends is that he bases a lot of his modus operandi around ‘The Art of War’ and over the years he has picked a fight with pretty much everyone in the industry. Bill Gates, Ray Lane, Craig Conway, Tom Siebel and more recently SAP and HP. Frankly there isn’t anyone really left to fight so the speculation surely must be that the only person worthy of a challenge is God. Given the old joke – "What’s the difference between God and Larry Ellison?…God doesn’t think he’s Larry" – this may not be the case.
Facebook emerges as a powerful content player
Just a stab in the dark, but I’d hazard that before 2011 is out we’ll see Facebook commissioning its own content – or co-creating content at least. The ‘Like’ function
is powerful – whether for selling products or amplifying conversation around content. We know that young audiences are watching more online. I wouldn’t be surprised if Facebook will start working closely with production companies to push something like KateModern into stratospheric proportions – the first social entertainment blockbuster.
‘Do no evil’ Google becomes ‘Bad Google’
In some respects it seems almost stereotypical that a company that was once the darling of the industry is now beginning to look over its shoulder, as the mutterings begin to increase. Like Intel and Microsoft before then they have incurred the wrath of the regulators and how the company reacts next year will be interesting to watch. 
Hopefully it will have learnt from the mistakes of others, but there’s the danger its senior leadership team has drunk a little too much of the ‘Kool Aid’.’There is no doubt that the ‘noughties’ belonged to Google and today it remains one of the key drivers of the IT industry, but it needs to sustain that growth to justify its market cap. As a result its moved into a number of different areas with mixed results…Google Wave (#fail), Android (#successtodate), GoogleTV (#waitandsee). Similarly it has had the high profile embarrassment around China, which has severely dented its reputation and competitors like Facebook, Youtube and even Microsoft are beginning to make in-roads on its heartland. 2011 may be a sticky year for Google.
We will all be buying coffee via our mobiles by the end of next year
Whether paying for stuff with your mobile, buying online credits, or using Square we’ll be seeing a lot more money changing hands, without touching hands. Much of
the rest of the world already is – Africa and Asia are well ahead of Europe and US in this field, (indeed Gartner predict that 60% of this market in 2011 will be in Asia). But there is some key technology coming that will make phones that much smarter and make it that much easier for us all to get involved. Google has confirmed the next version of Android will support NFC (near field communication) chips, and it’s rumoured that iPhone 5 will have this functionality in-built. Nokia and RIM are both also expected to follow-suit.
Creative Agency "ownership" of social media
This year the classic PR v marketing battle was augmented by the arrival of "customer services" onto the scene. The range of customer and support services using social media to support their communications and contacts has led to them claiming ownership (and budget). A valid claim (like all the rest). 
Next year customer relationship management (CRM) will join the fray under the moniker "social" CRM, linking customer databases with social media to define whether, when, how often, on what medium companies communicate with their customers.
I see loads of privacy and "ownership" issues but for any company who gets this right it could be huge.
There are however always pitfalls, and twitter is flooded with examples of companies ‘doing’ social media very well and responding to customers and issues, but the actual customer service department in the clients’ back office not following up. To avoid this becoming a fad or people losing faith in social media platforms as a channel, companies need to place the same focus on the back office customer services departments as they do in keeping pace with an external zeitgeist.
Gamification of Life
There’s a lot of chat about the ‘gaming of everyday life’. Truth is ‘social games’ like Farmville actually aren’t very social
(people tell their friends there are playing, but are they playing with friends and telling others? I think not). FourSquare is often touted as the best example of the gamification of life but personally, I don’t think it is a very good game.
To its credit I think it’s a very promising form of direct marketing and I’m sure we’ll see more coupons next year. More interesting – if more niche – social games are playthings like Chromoroma. These sorts of initiatives will continue to garner interest from the press and trend watchers. Whether or not they will engage enough people to become ‘mainstream’ is perhaps unlikely. But in a game of influencing the influencers – this sort of creative approach will be a top scorer.
Murdoch will just give up with his paywall.
Personally I think it’s all a little too little too late – the industry has sat back and watched itself be destroyed – news on the internet will be, and will always be, free. If you can’t get what you want from The Times you’ll go somewhere else to find it.
The quality argument, for me personally, doesn’t stack up, people generally will accept a lower quality if it costs them nothing.
Mobile and application based news might be a short-term saviour, and there will be winners and losers in this area next year. It’s perhaps true that people are prepared to pay for innovation and the novel – but even then, the future of the mobile experience looks set to be a browser/cloud based model. Mobile applications will go the same way as desktop applications at some point in the not too distant future (let’s say 2013 for arguments sake).
News will become hyper-local & hyper-social. A location based service will join forces with a news site for location centric news – what’s happening where you are right now….. bringing you nearer to……
……‘Where’s that ambulance going?’
I don’t think 2010 has quite been the year of location, as many though it might be. Less than 4% of mobile users are using this feature. It’s growing though and expect next year – with the rise in popularity of Foursquare and Facebook places (sorry Gowalla you missed the boat) – for the term “where am I now” to be more popular than ever.
Combine this with the fact that media is looking to innovate, to tap into the power of social, than I can see a very logical next step to be a combination of owned and user generated news to be pushed to users based on location. 
What is happening in the world you’re in right now. Whether this is in combination with one of the aforementioned services or a plug-in to a site like the BBC, Digg or the Guardian, I think we’ll start to see this as a powerful service. Indirectly, this may then only serve to fuel citizen journalism, as people are alerted more easily to incidents / events happening close to them.
Someone will figure out how to give everything, no matter how small, an IP address
Long shot this one, and is based on boozy conversations with colleagues on the outerweb and the internet of things, that this could be the next big breakthrough – giving everything a link to the internet.
This could be as simple as me seeing a sofa or salt shaker and “liking” it in real time or adding instantly to an Amazon wish list via a connection to my smartphone. It will happen, perhaps not next year, but it’s always good to have an outlandish prediction – and hell most food products do now have a link to the web via barcodes.
Videogames will shift from products to entertainment services
By the end of 2011, most blockbusters games will turn
into an subscription-based service instead of releasing a new iteration each year (i.e.: the Call of Duty franchise). We’ve already seen this happening with the Steam platform offering games as uploads, and annoying retail outlets in the process, but the next year could see this become even more prominent. Gamers are currently predominantly ‘owned’ by their console (although multi-console owners are increasingly more common), but game manufacturers could see a niche in the market for tying them into series through exclusive uploads, game advances and new episodes. Given the dedication the most successful games generate, this would seem a seamless next step.
Cloudy outlook; another year of unfulfilled promise, the return of hardware storage, and Everything-As-A-Service?
Seriously, can someone just make the cloud revolution finally happen? It’s been on everyone’s lips for years – YEARS – but is 2011 the year the cloud actually becomes the tech saviour it’s lined up as?
Granted, there are already plenty of services claiming ‘cloud’ services, but on closer inspection many of these are simply network servers – can we finally envisage a true cloud? If we are to do so, the main obstacle is going to be keeping such services reliable and absolutely, unrelentingly secure – it’s the security issue which has held adoption up in many instances.
And if the security issue does remain unconquerable, we could perhaps see the return of hardware storage with servers and SSDs, as the perceived risks around cloud computing create too many anxieties to warrant full adoption.
If the cloud DOES finally break loose, expect ‘EaaS’ – Everything-as-a-Service – a growing offers with more collaborative tools and more complete applications to be proposed; everything becomes “on demand” with the cloud.
Social media will finally arrive in the enterprise
We’ve already witnessed the growing adoption of social media in the enterprise – for both internal and external usage – and we can expect to see more of the same as IT decision makers start to impact the business strategy discussions.
Once the C Suite understand the role social media plays in business, and how it can (positively) impact business efficiency, we’ll see this boom. Social media is currently viewed as a distraction to staff, but once this misapprehension is dealt with, and its proper adoption, integration and monitoring is understood, enterprises will rush to get involved. 
The key issue which needs tackling in 2011 is to dispel the perception of social media adoption being simply an ‘allow or deny’ decision. It is simply not that black and white, and different employees require differing access and controls. The workforce coming into industry now is that which has grown up with the likes of Facebook, and they’ll expect the same in business – and if they don’t get it, they’ll find a way around security to use it none the less. “Allow or deny” is no longer a valid debate.
and the consumerisation of IT won’t be restricted to social media…
…Bring-your-own
We can’t get enough of having a familiar device in our pocket, even in the
workplace – we’re moving into the age of ‘bring your own’- your own technology, that is – into work. With more Millennials/Generation Y/the L’Oréal generation, whatever you want to call them, coming into the workplace, we’ll see a shift in the technology we use and how we use it altogether. Businesses will support the idea – in theory. Employees using a familiar device has the obvious efficiency advantages. However, whether organisations, and infrastructure, will be able to support alien devices is another thing. After all, there’s the usual security, technical, data protection and legal issues that cloud computing has been dealing with for years. It will certainly be a step in the right direction, but we may very well get there at a snail’s pace.
with thanks for the following for contributions:
@RogerDara
@cairbreUK
@LukeMackay
@JustinWestcott
@LucyDesaDavies
@wonky_donky
Like this:
Like Loading...
June 11, 2010
The Fire Hose, Ideas, and ‘Topology of Influence’
Posted by thenakedpheasant under Analyst relations, Brand, Business, Consumer, Content, Design, Digital, Engagement, Entertainment, facebook, Influence, Media, Ownership, Poularity, Science, Social media, Technology, Telco, Television, Trust, TweetLevel, Twitter, Women | Tags: adapters, amplifiers, behaviour, commentators, communities, community, Conversation, Digital, dow jones, Engagment, etiquette, idea sources, idea starters, Influence, influentials, jeremiah owyang, john dvorak, online, opinion, social engagement, Social media, social networking, Technology, TweetLevel, Twitter, viewers |[3] Comments
Ideas and the Fire Hose
Today the connected citizen is drinking from a fire hose of information which is an experience of our own making. In our eagerness to engage online we created more new data in 2009 than had been generated in history to date. But
where do all these new ideas and conversations come from to create such a torrent?
Begin at the beginning
Here is my question, if conversations are markets then who starts them? Who starts the idea that starts the conversation? Who said that yellow stuff looks really nice – why don’t we give it a certain prestige in our culture and make it important to own? Even in today’s internet world a small group of people need to hit on the idea to get the ball rolling.
Today using new tools and approaches we can see who starts these conversations quite clearly. Furthermore we can also engage with these online citizens in conversations that build and strengthen ideas, and ultimately aid the dispersion of ideas to wider audiences who have purchasing power, authority or influence.
Defining online conversations and engagement
From our experience in working with HP and other technology businesses we see that people actively participating in conversations within the digital ecosystem can be identified as having certain qualities and characteristics based on their style of online engagement, level of contribution and informed discussions.
These communication characteristics can be divided and define five main categories that form the digital conversation model and its participants. The categories are termed: ‘idea starters’, ‘amplifiers’, ‘adapters’, ‘commentators’ and ‘viewers’. The characteristics of each group are diverse but that is not to suggest that one person cannot occupy more than one role at anytime. We can further understand the digital conversation model, culture and etiquette through the ‘Topology of Influence’ diagram below.
By analysing the online conversation culture and engagement etiquette of idea starters, it is apparent that these individuals often form less than one percent of those engaged within an online conversation. Even amplifiers will only usually form between five to ten percent of the online crowd. These two groups are often referred to as ‘influencers’. However, this term is misleading as both engagement etiquettes are driven less by the need to ‘influence’ than the desire to share, educate, inform and entertain within a conversation. The traditional notion of seeking to set an objective and influence the world implied by the term ‘influencer’ misses the point of successful engagement – it renders images of one-way brashness, shouting and persuasion, not the two-way, open dialogue engagement should be. We therefore prefer to see these groups as ‘influentials’ within the process of engagement. This is exactly why understanding the culture and etiquette of individuals participating in online conversations is valuable so we can clearly identify the individual’s role within a conversation and quickly determine their intention, purpose and potential.
‘Adapters and commentators’ are a very important ingredient in the online engagement model as they bring a broader context, scope and refinement to the conversation. Adapters are usually people who read what is going on outside of their traditional sphere of knowledge and take the opinions of others and reform them so that they are tailored to their niche group. Commentators do not usually create new content but instead read the views and opinions of others and take part in the conversation by adding comments. Each forms between 10-20 percent of those engaged online. Although as conversations get bigger and evolve, it is usually the adapters who hold a larger proportion of the conversation.
The final group are the ‘viewers’ who are the majority group with 40 percent and over. These individuals do not create any online content but tend to be a vociferous consumer of information of which they read, learn and share with their peers in the offline world. Although they do not have the same reach as the amplifier, their views are trusted and they are able to promote these ideas in an alternative method. Viewers are not completely passive online; they participate in search engine and Google activity but essentially they do not declare themselves in this type. This characteristic is behavioural as a reader will often remain silent even in an online conversation where they could be an adapter or even an idea starter. A large proportion of viewers are accidentals who Google into a conversation by accident, irregularly or take note and leave. Viewers are often harder to identify as they do not necessarily leave a digital footprint but they are nevertheless important.
Who are idea starters?
An idea starter tends to be an individual who is highly engaged with digital and social media. They use social media as a platform to gather ideas and consume vast amounts of data. As a result they have an intricate network of online relationships but this is not necessarily a mass communications platform; the quality of relationships is at least, if not more important than the individual’s quantity of relationships. An idea starter is not necessarily the individual who has the ‘bright idea’ but they are the one who starts a conversational meme within the online topics of discussion. Just like planting a seed in the best possible environment, the meme experiences germination and growth within the community which reacts through engagement. Increasingly this happens around formalised but not walled communities. The idea is generally started via a blog, ezine or contribution to a forum.
In Jeremiah Owyang’s Dow Jones White Paper on ‘Tracking the Influence of Conversation’, a meme was defined as: “an idea or discussion that grows and spreads from individual to individual into a lengthy commentary.”
The idea starter (Who? When? Where? Why? How?)
This person is typically creative, forms opinions and articulates them well. They get inspiration for ideas from the information they consume from reading, observing conversations, and their own inner tensions. Crucially they have the ability to state a view at the right time and have a profound level of engagement within a community that will interact and respond to their idea. Some of the most engaged idea starters work both as individuals or part of a close team when initiating conversations. This requires a high level of transparency around who and what contributed to a new thought and the traditional respect for the important influences and data sources that were involved in forming the concept.
A good example of a popular idea starter is American blogger and television personality, Perez Hilton (@PerezHilton). Famous for turning his blogging passion into a career and creating a niche for single-handedly making and breaking celebrities in all types of media, Perez Hilton is an ultimate idea starter.![clip_image002[7] clip_image002[7]](http://thenakedpheasant.files.wordpress.com/2010/06/clip_image0027_thumb.jpg?w=437&h=152)
The nature of this engagement is important to the community which tends to see an idea starter as being very authentic on the subject area. This is more than adhering to transparency or having the right qualifications, but it instead relates to their role within the broader conversation topic and whether they have a paid or vested interest. Are they authentic enough to avoid received wisdom? How do they deal with platitudes? How deep is their topic expertise and experience? This is different from traditional journalist objectivity. Many idea starters are typically consultants or advisers within the area of conversation and are often not journalists or analysts. A key characteristic of an idea starter is their willingness to be transparent and contextualise their subjective influences. Their readership is not necessarily large but readers view the individual as trustworthy.
A key source of this authenticity is that idea starters often know how to do something as well as think or comment on it. They are in many ways true innovators sitting at the cross road of tacit and explicit knowledge – this is what gives them their edge and explains the depth of their engagement.
How do they change?
Idea starters who are very successful face certain challenges as technology evolves and new platforms begin to present complex obstacles. The fact that they become famous means they spend less time creating content, and more time communicating and managing relationships. Additionally they often grow beyond their initial subject expertise and this can erode their authenticity within their community. Furthermore new platforms and popularity encourage greater broadcasting of communication. At this stage idea starters tend to become more reminiscent of amplifiers.
Therefore, the lifecycle of an idea starter is not static. It is a phase that evolves over time in accordance to the demand and engagement of its listeners. It can be short lived but the position, power and status can be regained. It requires control, breadth and depth of thinking, specific expertise, and the ability to position ideas with the right audience at the right time.
Amplifiers (Who? How fast? How long? Where? Why? How?)
Amplifiers are people who thrive by sharing opinions and like nothing better than being the first to do so. They are trusted within their communities and have a large following and readership. They are a hosepipe of knowledge and data. Generally they do not synthesize data or generate new hypotheses for a conversational meme other than to collate and aggregate established thoughts (they create a lot of lists).
Often amplifiers are journalists and analysts as well as celebrities who have strong communication skills and an online presence. Industry commentators and specialists are just as prevalent and are often the most influential amplifiers (see Tweet Level list).
The level of engagement can vary enormously between amplifiers.
Web based amplifiers such as Guy Malachi use digital platforms to solicit ideas from their communities and engage in micro conversations for instance. Again, as they grow more popular time becomes a challenge to maintain this level of engagement although many people show a remarkable capacity to keep to personalised communications.
This leads to a rare constituency of online conversations where people can act as both genuine idea starters and amplifiers. This group acts as a bridge between level of engagement where ideas start and the amplification of them into broader internet and real world conversations.
The Special Ones: Idea starters who amplify?
This special combination of engagement is crucial as they accelerate and build conversations with great momentum and they also link the clusters of idea starters to the more aggressive amplifiers. Idea starters tend to enjoy discrete conversations and authenticity above all else. As a result their conversations often live within micro communities and that is where their ideas can stay. When idea starters with the ability to amplify pick up on a meme it can break out of the micro channels to the macro conversations main stream media and word of mouth.
These idea starters who amplify often have similar personal and professional interests and have a thirst for knowledge as well as a desire to pre-empt or be kept in the loop about the next big thing. By driving micro conversations with a wide range of online communities and keeping abreast of potential industry related issues on a personal level, this can help keep them informed and enable them to feed thoughts into professionally related ideas that can help initiate business, drive opportunities or get a real world perspective.
How do they morph over time?
All roles have the potential to morph over time for a number of reasons:
What is the relationship between an idea starter and amplifier?
There is a relationship of reliance between idea starters and amplifiers. One would almost be meaningless without the other. Idea starters would get lost in the noise and amplifiers would not have the thought provoking ideas and content which they so like to share.
Both are renowned for their level of insight, engagement, timing and contacts which gives them a certain level of prestige and influence within their communities. They like recognition and being sought after or being in demand, and therefore feed off each other to make this happen.
This makes these groups the ‘influentials’ in the conversation but they are not the only groups as we shall see but before looking at these next groups a word of caution. Are we getting carried away with this idea of conversation and authenticity? Are we just kidding ourselves that it is not just about influencing after all – by seeking out idea starters are we not looking to further an objective?
We love this quote that highlights John C. Dvorak in PC Magazine view that ‘Cluetrain’ may be cultish. For example,
It is exactly this notion of authenticity which so annoys Dvorak that makes idea starters so powerful in conversation. In part this means a level of naivety is necessary as Dame Gillian Beer observes, “babies are having new ideas all day long.” To respect this view of worId, to listen with intelligence and bring this understanding from idea starters into our own view of the conversation means that anyone can become an influential. This is what is so exciting for individuals, organisations, companies and governments – they can change their behaviour and become more successful.
Where do new ideas come from?
The way ideas start, develop, grow and spread stems within an online community. Understanding the community who starts and amplifies the ideas is key. In building deeper relationships it is important to understand the idea starter and amplifier landscape. Here is a list of the top idea starter influencers within the general technology conversation on Twitter. As is clear this typology is a new landscape which media (beyond a few high profile examples such as Mashable) hardly represent, while experts such as Chris Brogan dominate and even companies like Google are a major source of ideas. The challenge for the future is to build authentic ideas that allow deeper relationships with these extremely diverse communities.
Tweet Level’s top idea starter influencers within the general technology conversation
Share this:
Like this: